Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 9.688438 11.378329 13.226024 15.389707 17.847084 20.544271 23.721447
2025-02-02 7.202516 9.529011 12.328400 15.913555 20.348564 25.618382 32.313541
2025-02-09 5.641352 8.273098 11.707987 16.444056 22.718137 30.649697 41.324628
2025-02-16 4.389878 7.071339 10.835805 16.372514 24.149200 34.503079 49.113438
2025-02-23 3.398447 5.982078 9.863815 15.918499 24.877934 37.359698 55.705367
2025-03-02 2.620176 5.026818 8.884982 15.243301 25.113848 39.440072 61.275783
2025-03-09 2.144825 4.451141 8.370624 15.151366 26.124463 42.618774 68.542446
2025-03-16 1.739786 3.903744 7.797759 14.856920 26.739831 45.197068 75.041803
2025-03-23 1.569497 3.755668 7.877061 15.633569 29.103415 50.568469 86.048611
2025-03-30 1.346013 3.450711 7.618858 15.776012 30.403767 54.331413 94.772447
2025-04-06 1.148301 3.154113 7.324639 15.803235 31.484538 57.782559 103.175270
2025-04-13 0.974799 2.870148 7.006464 15.735286 32.369848 60.941259 111.256340
2025-04-20 0.924545 2.876403 7.300869 16.911605 35.651862 68.430188 127.034182
2025-04-27 0.844591 2.791898 7.392268 17.700835 38.299527 75.027964 141.748689
2025-05-04 0.763989 2.686157 7.419857 18.360338 40.754624 81.442238 156.508063
2025-05-11 0.650578 2.458228 7.128411 18.308856 41.824011 85.455480 167.349219
2025-05-18 0.532497 2.179744 6.664884 17.818600 41.967807 87.784471 175.350698
2025-05-25 0.424092 1.893527 6.125212 17.078288 41.519108 88.965221 181.341711
2025-06-01 0.359651 1.731853 5.877874 16.978057 42.378900 92.634725 191.985484
2025-06-08 0.297785 1.555913 5.556467 16.654009 42.722252 95.319300 200.937260
2025-06-15 0.280461 1.546044 5.705648 17.509606 45.701948 103.292552 220.079244
2025-06-22 0.245479 1.451144 5.586396 17.666482 47.132074 108.268430 233.781987
2025-06-29 0.212101 1.349442 5.426629 17.696469 48.272207 112.717970 246.674700